Red Moon Uprising?

I haven't been in the mood of late to delve too deeply back into the world of politics, and in a way I am loathe to do so now. I still keep up with the news of course. I could expound on my thoughts about the litigation working its way through the courts on the healthcare law, or on the economy, the budget deficit and whether the new leadership in the House can actually accomplish anything. But as it is, bigger events are happening on the world stage, and we here in the U.S. may finally be starting to take notice. Maybe.

I read with interest a few weeks ago about the uprising in Tunisia, which resulted in the overthrow of the government and ongoing instability there. The government of Lebanon came under full control of Hezbollah. Rockets continue to rain down on Israel from Hamas. The big news this past week has been filled with an uprising in Egypt, which seems likely to end the 30-year reign of Hosni Mubarak.

And today, the King of Jordan, perhaps trying to get ahead of a possible uprising in his own country, preemptively dismissed his entire government and set about trying to form a new one.

Egypt and Jordan are by far the most alarming developments. These two countries are the only ones in that part of the world that have diplomatic relations with Israel. In Egypt, if the Muslim Brotherhood organization gains control of the government, peace between Egypt and Israel may not last. Jordan, which like Egypt also shares a border with Israel, is important because if it were to fall, Israel would have adversaries literally on every side. Furthermore, Jordan borders Iraq and provides supply lines to the American forces still in country.

I'm not smart enough to comment on these developments authoritatively, and from what I see and read, I'm not sure anyone really is. It is too difficult to know what is really happening on the ground. Most governments, including our own, are mostly just issuing public statements of concern that carry little weight. We can hope that the State Department and the White House are actively working behind the scenes diplomatically, but I imagine there is concern about our ability to be effective in the face of an uprising that does not view the U.S. with friendly eyes. One lesson seems clear: Autocracies (even friendly ones) are rarely stable for more than a generation or two, and they are usually replaced by new autocracies after a violent revolution or rebellion.

Are we on the verge of a broader Middle East war, perhaps within the next year or two? Or will the alarm and unrest pass? The winds seem ominous to me, but again, I'm not sufficiently educated or even armed with enough facts to speculate.

One thing seems certain: major change is coming to the region, and may already be underway. How we respond and how it affects us remains to be seen.