Mideast Watch

It was bad enough that the government of Turkey sanctioned the attempt by so-called peace activists to run an Israeli military blockade of Gaza. This blockade, which even analysts for Reuters recognize as legal per international law, aims to stem the flow of non-humanitarian shipments into Gaza-direct. Legitimate humanitarian resources are readily allowed into Gaza, once inspected by Israeli officials. Remember, the blockade is in place because Hamas controls Gaza, and they like to shoot rockets from Gaza into Israel indiscriminately.

But the attempts to run the blockade have everything to do with political media show, and little to do with true humanitarian cause. The leadership of Turkey is flexing its muscle in the region, to the point where now the Turkish prime minister Erdogan is considering sending future flotillas against the blockade accompanied by the Turkish navy. He is even considering personally making the journey to Gaza to help break the blockade. To make matters worse, Iran also wants to play. They plan to send ships too. Turkish and Iranian ships against an Israeli blockade. I sure do hope the State Department is in overdrive here, even if behind the scenes.

I've quoted Professor Paul Rahe of Hillsdale College before. In a article for BigGovernment.com, he writes (emphasis mine):

There were six ships in the Gaza Flotilla. Only one of them was the source of any trouble, and it was a Turkish craft to a considerable degree manned by Turks. That Hamas and its allies should have staged such an incident is only what we should expect. That the Turkish government should have a hand in such a matter, as it evidently did – that is disturbing in the extreme.

If Recep Tayyip Erdoğan succeeds in his quest, there will be a major change in the balance of power in the Middle East. These days, apart from the Islamic Republic of Iran and its ally Syria, there is no state of any real significance in the Middle East that sponsors terrorism. But Turkey now appears to be coming down on the side of Hamas and Hezbollah, and that really matters. Turkey is a regional power of no mean importance. It has a first-rate army and a fine military tradition; and, when Turks throw themselves into a fight, they mean business. Turkey has weight.

Meanwhile, in Egypt, an epoch is about to come to an end. Soon, Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled Egypt for nearly thirty years, will pass from the scene. I would not be surprised if his successor, responding to the impulses felt by the younger generation, were to ally himself with the Muslim Brotherhood. There is a storm gathering in the Middle East, and at the White House, alas, it is amateur hour, for the United States now has a President who appears to be blithely unaware of the consequences – or worse: unconcerned or even vaguely sympathetic to the transformation about to take place.

Turkey is a member of NATO, which complicates matters significantly. The apparent trajectories of Turkey and Egypt, once able partners with the U.S. in general support of Israel's right to exist, is a troubling development. I will not go as far as Professor Rahe does in criticizing the White House, but it is troubling that they seem to have little to say publicly. Nevertheless, I would rather them exercise some caution, given that Turkey and Israel, though now apparently at odds with one another, are both still allies of the U.S. But if Turkey does indeed decide to cast its lot with Iran, Syria and terrorist organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah, we should be very, very concerned.

Little good can come from the standoff of Israeli, Turkish and Iranian naval vessels in close proximity. We shall see.